wow.
Saturday, September 12, 2020
Saturday, May 2, 2020
See good in bad
Kinda fucked up that it takes a horrible disease to shine a beacon on all the unnecessary garbage we are either doing or consuming.
Who knows, maybe the world will wax reasonable in the new normal.
No chance. Capitalism depends wholly on a society that worships extroverted traits, frivolous spending, convenience consumption, disassociation from the food chain, and status symbol envy.
Friday, April 24, 2020
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
Saturday, March 14, 2020
The math
Been tracking this and reading a bunch of the literature since this thing broke out. It happened to coincide with the data projects at work and training I'm doing online and using it as a course project. So, created a site at:
After the embedded dashboard, the page has the back of the envelope comparison to flu. I ran these numbers because of the cognitive dissonance created between the argument that it was "just another flu" and the massive response actions being taken in other countries.
References to the data used in the calculation are provided at the bottom of the page. The page also has a discussion on the large uncertainties associated with the virus. Leaked CDC numbers span my scenarios for flu-similar and twice flu (they estimate 200k to 1.2M). Note that these are intentionally worst case. I think the numbers would likely be closer to the CDC estimates if this thing runs its course here.
Of course, no one knows how many people have it because there hasn't been any real testing outside of cases with severe symptoms or hospitalization, unless you were on a cruise ship at the time or rich. Hopefully the actual infected around the world is more like millions of people with the virus, and only a small percentage get the severe complications of COVID-19. That would actually be a much better story.
Europe will be the real test to see what it does, and the data coming out of a Western democracy is likely to be more "open" than the information coming from the Chinese government. Unfortunately, whatever happens there, we'll see similar things happening in the U.S. with a delayed of about two or three weeks.
I'll be updating the site daily with projections on the dashboard, and will update the math on the site if there's a new, statistically-significant epidemiological study published.
Even if it does run unmitigated and the preliminary numbers are a good estimate, in the end 600k-1M Americans isn't an "end of the world" scenario. It's just similar to fighting 1.5 to 2.5 WWIIs without all the bother of going anywhere. And, much like the draft, it'll be the poor and working class that are disproportionately "recruited" to fight the battle.
Figure our chances being overweight and with underlying heart / auto-immine issues are 5% +/-3% (total guess) of dying if we get complications. Our dads have a significantly higher chance of dying with this one. Note that men die with this at about twice the rate of women, based on the data so far.
Most casualties (~60%) will likely be in people over 70. I think the Trump administration might actually want the virus to wipe out people receiving social security, and the top-heavy government workforce along with them, all while making lots of money on medical investments along the way. In some ways, they are playing the perfect game that fat, bloated plutocrats often play.
Face it, containment in the U.S. is not possible. I don't think intelligent social distancing and care with sanitizing surfaces / products is that big an ask for our society to take in order to slow this shit down. But will it work? People still go to work sick and with a fever or cough. The stores are even now overcrowded with everyone touching the same surfaces in a wanton manner. The average American citizen is not educated or intelligent enough to implement common sense. Half of them still think it's fake.
In addition, our healthcare system and culture is in no way designed to handle this type of event. The pandemic and CBRN drills in this country are a joke, the hospitals are already mostly full even without considering COVID-19, and no one is going to get tested or miss work if they are going to lose pay.
To sum it up, as far as we (the American citizens) are concerned....the cat's out of the bag. The virus is here, and we have to deal with it. So, as typical in American society, we're on our own. Deal with it.
Suggest that we not spend too much time in the "valley of despair:"
Thursday, March 5, 2020
wow - the matrix isn't even trying anymore
As South Korea battles a snowballing number of Covid-19 cases, the government is letting people know if they were in the vicinity of a patient. But the volume of information has led to some awkward moments and now there is as much fear of social stigma as of illness, as Hyung Eun Kim of BBC News Korean reports.
As I sit at home, my phone beeps alarmingly with emergency alerts.
"A 43-year-old man, resident of Nowon district, tested positive for coronavirus," it says.
"He was at his work in Mapo district attending a sexual harassment class. He contracted the virus from the instructor of the class."
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Monday, February 24, 2020
Friday, February 21, 2020
Friday, February 14, 2020
Friday, February 7, 2020
the problem with flu comparisons
There's a lot of back and forth on 2019-nCoV vs flu, like this:
What the flu articles fail to address is the math. Yes, it's horrible that so many people have succumbed to the flu, and we should do a better job. But, when you look at the reported numbers, 2019-nCoV is 35 times more lethal than the flu. So, elevated concern seems to be warranted. Especially when coupled with the fact that the quality of the data coming from certain companies is highly suspect.
Wednesday, February 5, 2020
no es bueno
We're so screwed. Also, the government is already covering up the severity here:
"The five pages of information were obtained by multiple U.S. officials who provided the documents on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose the information."
No surprise there considering what a lying sack of shit sits at the top of our current heap. We're all doomed.
Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Sunday, January 26, 2020
Karma finally catches up to Kobe
2003 - Kobe rapes someone, has his defense team smear them viciously, practically intimidating the victim into not testifying, then settles in a civil suit. Early 2020 - Kobe Bryant dies in a helicopter crash.
17 years is a bit too long for instant karma, so we'll call this one "settled out of court."
If only he was as good at keeping it in his pants as he was at playing a game for kids.
Saturday, January 25, 2020
Thursday, January 23, 2020
100 seconds to go!
People tend to bank on technology saving humanity, but the fact of the matter is that technology, rather than changing the trajectory, just gets us to the endpoint of our journey faster.
"When a forest grows too wild a purging fire is inevitable and natural. Tomorrow, the world will watch in horror as its greatest city destroys itself. The movement back to harmony will be unstoppable this time." - Ra's al Ghul
Metaphorically prescient, given that soon we'll witness a Senate acquittal which equates to a tacit admission, in no uncertain terms, that our entire democracy is and always has been a total, unequivocal sham.
Personally, I've known that a long, long time. It's pretty obvious that we are a thinly-veiled plutocratic empire. In some ways it's heartening to see others finally waking up to that fact. But I definitely know I don't want to be living within a collapsing empire, and recent events indicate that it is eroded faster than my wildest dreams.
Canada might not be far enough to flee. Getting back onto the European continent is probably a better long term bet.
"Continued corruption of the information ecosphere on which democracy and public decision making depend has heightened the nuclear and climate threats. In the last year, many governments used cyber-enabled disinformation campaigns to sow distrust in institutions and among nations, undermining domestic and international efforts to foster peace and protect the planet.
This situation—two major threats to human civilization, amplified by sophisticated, technology-propelled propaganda—would be serious enough if leaders around the world were focused on managing the danger and reducing the risk of catastrophe. Instead, over the last two years, we have seen influential leaders denigrate and discard the most effective methods for addressing complex threats—international agreements with strong verification regimes—in favor of their own narrow interests and domestic political gain. By undermining cooperative, science- and law-based approaches to managing the most urgent threats to humanity, these leaders have helped to create a situation that will, if unaddressed, lead to catastrophe, sooner rather than later.
Faced with this daunting threat landscape and a new willingness of political leaders to reject the negotiations and institutions that can protect civilization over the long term, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board today moves the Doomsday Clock 20 seconds closer to midnight—closer to apocalypse than ever. In so doing, board members are explicitly warning leaders and citizens around the world that the international security situation is now more dangerous than it has ever been, even at the height of the Cold War."
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
we are all gonna die
"The first US case was confirmed on Tuesday. President Donald Trump said the situation was "totally under control" and that he trusted the information being provided by Chinese authorities."
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
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