Been tracking this and reading a bunch of the literature since this thing broke out. It happened to coincide with the data projects at work and training I'm doing online and using it as a course project. So, created a site at:
After the embedded dashboard, the page has the back of the envelope comparison to flu. I ran these numbers because of the cognitive dissonance created between the argument that it was "just another flu" and the massive response actions being taken in other countries.
References to the data used in the calculation are provided at the bottom of the page. The page also has a discussion on the large uncertainties associated with the virus. Leaked CDC numbers span my scenarios for flu-similar and twice flu (they estimate 200k to 1.2M). Note that these are intentionally worst case. I think the numbers would likely be closer to the CDC estimates if this thing runs its course here.
Of course, no one knows how many people have it because there hasn't been any real testing outside of cases with severe symptoms or hospitalization, unless you were on a cruise ship at the time or rich. Hopefully the actual infected around the world is more like millions of people with the virus, and only a small percentage get the severe complications of COVID-19. That would actually be a much better story.
Europe will be the real test to see what it does, and the data coming out of a Western democracy is likely to be more "open" than the information coming from the Chinese government. Unfortunately, whatever happens there, we'll see similar things happening in the U.S. with a delayed of about two or three weeks.
I'll be updating the site daily with projections on the dashboard, and will update the math on the site if there's a new, statistically-significant epidemiological study published.
Even if it does run unmitigated and the preliminary numbers are a good estimate, in the end 600k-1M Americans isn't an "end of the world" scenario. It's just similar to fighting 1.5 to 2.5 WWIIs without all the bother of going anywhere. And, much like the draft, it'll be the poor and working class that are disproportionately "recruited" to fight the battle.
Figure our chances being overweight and with underlying heart / auto-immine issues are 5% +/-3% (total guess) of dying if we get complications. Our dads have a significantly higher chance of dying with this one. Note that men die with this at about twice the rate of women, based on the data so far.
Most casualties (~60%) will likely be in people over 70. I think the Trump administration might actually want the virus to wipe out people receiving social security, and the top-heavy government workforce along with them, all while making lots of money on medical investments along the way. In some ways, they are playing the perfect game that fat, bloated plutocrats often play.
Face it, containment in the U.S. is not possible. I don't think intelligent social distancing and care with sanitizing surfaces / products is that big an ask for our society to take in order to slow this shit down. But will it work? People still go to work sick and with a fever or cough. The stores are even now overcrowded with everyone touching the same surfaces in a wanton manner. The average American citizen is not educated or intelligent enough to implement common sense. Half of them still think it's fake.
In addition, our healthcare system and culture is in no way designed to handle this type of event. The pandemic and CBRN drills in this country are a joke, the hospitals are already mostly full even without considering COVID-19, and no one is going to get tested or miss work if they are going to lose pay.
To sum it up, as far as we (the American citizens) are concerned....the cat's out of the bag. The virus is here, and we have to deal with it. So, as typical in American society, we're on our own. Deal with it.
Suggest that we not spend too much time in the "valley of despair:"
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