The realistic line assumes that plants shut down about 10 years before their license expiration. To date, no reactor has operated to the end of its license. For all reactors that have already announced planned shutdowns, the data includes the dates reported in http://www.beyondnuclear.org/reactors-are-closing/.
But, the great news is that it looks like there will be a well-timed dropoff of reactors right about the time I need a VERA buyout, in 2029.
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